Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
